UNLV hosts Vanderbilt in key game
Two games into the season and there is still little known about UNLV. Having large talent gaps between the competition over the first two weeks, the Rebels (1-1) will play in what can be considered a “coin-flip” game, one in which the spread is within a score. The first two Rebel opponents were at opposite ends of the spectrum and the expected margins were met, but Saturday’s game sees Vanderbilt (2-1) as a 4-point favorite. It is one of a small handful of expected tight games that can determine bowl eligibility by the end of the season.
The Rebel secondary will be tested by the Commodores. Sophomore quarterback AJ Swann has thrown for eight touchdowns this season in leading the SEC and ranking fourth among FBS quarterbacks. His 766 passing yards are fifth-most among FBS quarterbacks. But as talented as he is, Swann has had some inconsistency thus far. He has been picked three times this season and has been sacked six times, though applying pressure has been an issue for the Rebels who only have two on the season, both against Bryant.
After two wins to start the season, the Commodores were their own worst enemy in their loss against Wake Forest. Swann threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns, two to Will Sheppard and one to freshman phenom Landon Humphries, but Vanderbilt turned the ball over three times and suffered untimely penalties against the Deacons. But the defense also didn’t tackle well, allowing over 300 yards on the ground. It’s an area the Rebels will look to exploit with a host of running backs. While they gained little against one of the top teams in the nation, the Rebels did find success in large chunks in their season opener against Bryant.
More than anything, the Rebels need quarterback Doug Brumfield to find his comfort zone and that starts with protection. In week one, there were some timing and touch issues that sometimes show while adapting to a new offense. Against Michigan, Brumfield was sacked five times while hurried many others and the Wolverines kept his legs from being a weapon. The offense sputtered the entire game, outside of a late inconsequential score. UNLV managed only 61 yards on 31 carries and 168 through the air. But the Rebels do expect the return of starters Jalen St. John and Alani Makihele to bolster the left side of the offensive line.
Ricky White, UNLV’s leading returning receiver, has caught only four passes through his first two games. For the Rebels to find any fluidity in the offense, the duo needs to start connecting on a more regular basis. Jacob De Jesus has been the most consistent receiver for the Rebels with nine catches for 96 yards, but the Rebels have yet to find a score through the air.
The Commodores will try to defuse De Jesus as a receiver and as a special teams threat. As a kick returner, the speedster has shown to be a weapon in the early season, highlighted by a 96 yard kick-off return in the opener. De Jesus is averaging nearly 53 yards per kick-off return on three attempts. The Commodores also feature weapons on the special teams unit. Will Sheppard and Jaden McGowan have been the top receivers for Vandy, but both have put up big numbers returning kicks. McGowan had a 97 yard kickoff return for a touchdown earlier in the year. According to ESPN’s FPI, Vanderbilt’s special teams rank 21st in the nation.
Prediction: A key game for the Rebels that may well determine bowl eligibility. The Go-Go offense has shown small bursts, but has sputtered with inconsistency. With the expected return of the left side of the offensive line, the Rebels should be able to find their ground game and provide better protection for Brumfield. With Vandy averaging 34 points per game, a high scoring affair can be expected. UNLV will do enough on offense and get a key special team play or two to outlast the Commodores 38-34.
Vanderbilt Results: Aug. 26 (W) 35-28 vs Hawaii, Sept. 2 (W) 47-13 vs Alabama A&M, Sept 9 (L) 20-36 at Wake Forest.
Vanderbilt Key Players: QB AJ Swann, 60-98 (61.2%), 766 yards (244 yards per game) eight TD, one interception … RB Patrick Smith, 27 carries for 157 yards, 5.8 yards per carry, one touchdown … RB Sedrick Alexander, 24 carries for 117 yards, 4.9 yards per carry, two touchdowns … WR Will Sheppard, 20 receptions for 217 yards, 6 TD … WR Jaden McGowan, 18 receptions for 214 yards … WR Landon Humphries, six receptions for 164 yards, 27.3 yards per catch, two touchdowns … LB CJ Taylor, 25 tackles, three sacks … DE Nate Clifton, 2 sacks … S De’Rickey Wright, two interceptions.
UNLV Results: Sept. 2 (W) 44-14 vs Bryant, Sept. 9 (L) 35-7 at #2 Michigan
UNLV Key Players: QB Doug Brumfield, 21-37 (57%) ... FR RB Jai'Den Thomas, 4.7 yards per carry, two touchdowns ... WR Jacob De Jesus, nine receptions for 96 yards, three kickoff returns for 158 yards ... P Marshall Nichols, 47.5 yards per kick ... K Jose Pizano 3/3 FG, long 48 ... DB Jerrae Williams, three TFL, one sack, one interception ...
Series History: UNLV leads 1-0 with a 34-10 win at Vanderbilt in 2019.
Spread: Vanderbilt -4
DATE: Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023
KICKOFF: 4:02 pm PT
SITE: Allegiant Stadium (61,000/Artificial) Las Vegas
TV: CBS Sports Network (Chris Lewis, Ross Tucker, Justin Walters)
RADIO: ESPN 1100 AM & 100.9 FM (Russ Langer, Caleb Herring & Steve Cofield)
ONLINE: Live Stats at www.unlvrebels.com
TICKETS: Call (702) 739-FANS or visit UNLVTickets.com