Rebels travel to Colorado Springs with title hopes in sight
Nearly twenty nine years ago to the day, the UNLV Rebels played one of their biggest games in program history. Head Coach Jeff Horton jumped as head coach of the UNR Wolf Pack to the enemy Rebels before the season began. The contest against UNR was coined “The Red Defection" game, but it was more than a heated rivalry game, it carried post season and conference championship impact.
Both schools were members of the Big West conference back then, with UNR being a perennial favorite behind a high powered offense. The Rebels managed to walk a tightrope that season, winning four games by a total of 15 points in conference. The head to head battle with the Wolf Pack was an opportunity for the Rebels to capture a share of the conference title with UNR. Behind a Rossie Johnson 54 yard interception return for a touchdown, a 54 yard field goal by Nick Garritano, a critical field position flipping 91 yard punt by Brad Faunce, and a four yard plunge by DeJohn Branch with 58 seconds remaining, the Rebels upset the Wolf Pack 32-27 on a chilly day at Sam Boyd Stadium. That victory gave UNLV a share of the conference title and propelled UNLV to the Las Vegas Bowl where they defeated Central Michigan 54-24.
Six seasons later, in Hall of Famer John Robinson’s second year as head coach of the Rebels, UNLV was sitting with a disappointing 4-5 record heading into the home stretch. After squeaking by New Mexico at home 18-14, the Rebels had to finish the season with two on the road. With fingers crossed for an opportunity to play in a bowl game, Amar Brisco picked off San Diego State’s Lon Sherrif with 52 seconds remaining and raced 72 yards for a score as UNLV beat the Aztecs 31-24. The following week, Hawaii quarterback Tim Chang’s two-point conversion attempt was out of the reach of receiver Craig Stutzmann and UNLV prevailed as 34-32 victors. With three straight close wins to finish the conference season, the Rebels finished at 8-5 (5-3 in conference) and earned another date in the Las Vegas Bowl. With a near perfect game from quarterback Jason Thomas, UNLV dominated the Arkansas Razorbacks 31-14.
When it comes to truly meaningful games, there are not many in UNLV football history. And those of the past pale in comparison to Saturday afternoon’s clash in Colorado Springs against Air Force.
The most pivotal game of the Mountain West slate to date kicks off at 12:30 p.m. PST with the Falcons coming in as a four point favorite over the upstart Rebels.
Air Force is coming off back to back losses, their only losses of the season, against Army and Hawaii, respectively. The Rebels have won two straight in dominating fashion over the UNM Lobos and the Wyoming Cowboys. Both teams are deadlocked atop the Mountain West Conference with 5-1 records. UNLV wraps up the season with a game at Allegiant against suddenly hot San Jose while the Falcons finish on the road to play an underachieving and head coach dismissing Boise State.
Both teams control their own destiny when it comes to playing in the Mountain West Championship game. One team will gain a tremendous advantage heading into the final week of play. While a loss will not necessarily eliminate championship game hopes, a win nearly guarantees an appearance.
There won’t be many surprises from the Air Force offense. Everybody knows what they’ll do – run, run, run and then run some more. The Falcons, playing from behind against Army, threw the ball 24 times, but that was an exception, not the rule. The Falcons have thrown nine passes or less in the rest of their games. Against San Jose State, the Cadets put it in the air only two times, only three times against Sam Houston State and Robert Morris. For the entire year, the Falcons average only four completions and 87 yards per game.
The Falcons rate as the second best rushing team in the nation by a large margin over third rated UCF and just a couple yards less per game than national leader Liberty. Air Force rushes for 276 yards per game, averaging just over five yards per rush. The Falcons have three games in which they gained over 350 yards on the ground, including a season high 400 yards in a 45-20 win at San Jose. The Falcons only passed two times in that game.
The offense is based upon a triple option, with quarterback Zachar Larrier in the backfield with a combination of running backs, primarily Emmanuel Michel, Owen Burk and John Lee Eldridge. Michel leads the team in both yards and rushing (733) and touchdowns (9), with Larrier adding 579 yards and five touchdowns. Burk and Eldridge are dangerous as well, both running for over 350 yards and combining for eight rushing touchdowns. But Larrier is the engine that makes the Air Force engine go, and he’s been slowed by injury over the past few weeks and played only a few downs versus Hawaii. If Larrier is limited or can’t go, Air Force is still dangerous by the design of the triple option offense, but not nearly as dangerous as when Larrier plays. If Larrier cannot go, Jensen Jones slides into the quarterback slot and he’s had success, just not as much as Larrier.
Beating Wyoming last Friday, the Rebels could benefit from the extra day to prepare for the Falcons. The attention to detail and maintaining discipline on the defensive side will be the difference in the game. If the Rebels overreact, get out of position, fail to maintain assignments and lanes, the Falcons will gouge the Rebels for large chunks as they’ve done all year long and historically against the Rebels. Once the Falcons lull you with the run only offense, they can strike with simple passes for long gains, so too much cheating by the defensive backs could be costly. The Rebels hope to get back two defensive difference makers in Johnathan Baldwin and Jerrae Williams, two active backs who cover a lot of ground.
Defensively, Air Force boasts the sixth best rushing defense in the nation, limiting the opposition to 86 yards per game and 2.9 yards per rush. Behind a balanced attack from multiple runners, the Rebels have the 21st best rushing offense in the nation, running for 196 yards per game at a 4.7 yards per attempt average. UNLV also leads the nation in rushing touchdowns with 31, over Oregon’s 29 and Air Force’s 28.
As teams have focused more on the Rebel running game, the passing numbers have improved. Over the last four games, the Rebels running and passing numbers have essentially flip flopped from what they were earlier in the season.
Air Force is also strong against the pass. The Falcons have the 5th best defense against the pass in terms of yards allowed at only 159.3 yards per game. UNLV is only averaging 226 pass yards per game, but Maiava and Ricky White have been putting up bigger numbers of late as opposing defenses have focused on the Rebel running attack. Over the past four games, Maiava has averaged 275 yards through the air with six touchdowns and two interceptions. Ricky White has been on a tear of his own. Over the past five games, he’s had at least seven receptions and has more than 140 yards in four of those five games along with six touchdown receptions.
However, part of the Air Force success defensively can be attributed to the amount of time their offense is on the field. The Falcons rank inside the top five of the nation with time of possession.
Both defenses tighten up on third downs. Both the Falcons and the Rebels have a top 40 defense in third down conversions allowed. Both offenses thrive when locked into third down situations. UNLV is fifth best in the nation with converting third downs at a 53.8% clip and Air Force converts at 49.6% of their third down opportunities which places them at eighth best in the nation.
UNLV has yet to have a punt return for a touchdown, but Jacob De Jesus seems to be on the brink of that every week. UNLV has excelled across the board in special teams all season long. As an All-America candidate, De Jesus leads college football in combined kick return yards with 801 and is the only player in the nation to rank in the top 10 for both punt and kickoff returns. He sits third in punt returns with 19.6 yards per attempt and eighth in kick-off returns with 27.3. Kicker Jose Pizano, who is on the Groza list, is tied for best in the nation in draining 21 of 22 field goals and moved into the lead for points in a season by a Rebel with 105. Because of an efficient offense, punter Marshall Nichols has not been called upon as much as usual, but he rates at #12 with punt average at 46.0 per kick.
Prediction: For the Rebels, the game is going to come down to maintaining focus and attention to detail of what has been covered over the past week. Air Force is difficult to prepare for even though what they are going to run no surprise. With so much nuance and so many options from the triple option, defensive discipline and poise are paramount against Air Force. The Rebels need to force third and long to put Air Force in difficult situations. If the Rebels can do that and hold Air Force to field goal attempts instead of touchdowns, the Rebels should come out on top. Further, a main emphasis for the Rebels will to be to get out of the gate quickly. Grabbing a two score lead at any point of the game forces Air Force to play more desperate and rely more on the passing game. A quick start by the Rebels, as they have done in several games, deflates the Falcon's biggest threat and puts them in situations in which they are less comfortable.
One of the biggest reasons for such a monumental turnaround in UNLV has been an improvement in discipline and poise. The team struggled out of the gate with the go go offense and some lingering bad habits, but they’ve steadily and rapidly corrected and improved as the season has progressed. The Rebels have been well prepared for each game and they’ve managed game flow well. Neither the offense nor the defense seem too get too up when things go well or too down when there are tough stretches. Aside from a poor third quarter marred by mistakes at Fresno and a game in which they were overmatched against Michigan, the Rebels have been as poised and balanced as anybody could have hoped.
Offensively, UNLV’s balance in both phases should pay off, it will be a matter of mixing in the right plays at the right times. Air Force is strong defensively, but UNLV has the most offensive versatility the Falcons will have faced all season long. Air Force is sure to keep an extra eye on White, so it will be an opportunity for players like Senika McKie, Jacob De Jesus, Kaleo Ballungay, and Dom Jicinto to be major contributors.
Special teams will play a large role in this contest, whether it’s a big play for De Jesus or Pizano’s leg. And with special teams being a significant advantage for UNLV this season, it wouldn’t be surprising for the Rebels to be holding on to a fake for a key point of the season.
UNLV’s defense will be tested and they will bend more than break. And the UNLV offense will find some difficulty moving the ball. But in the end, UNLV will hold off the Falcons and take sole possession of first place in the Mountain West Conference with one week to go, which will bring us to another most important game in school history.
Final Prediction: UNLV 30, Air Force 17
DATE: Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023
KICKOFF: 12:32 pm PT
SITE: Falcon Stadium (46,692/Artificial) Colorado Springs, CO
TV: CBS Sports Network (Carter Blackburn & Randy Cross)
RADIO: ESPN 1100 AM & 100.9 FM (Russ Langer, Caleb Herring & Steve Cofield)
NATIONAL: SiriusXM Channel 390
SPREAD: Air Force -4, O/U 47.0
