Rebels back home to duel the Cowboys
After a split in back to back road games at Fresno State and New Mexico, UNLV (7-2/4-1) returns to Allegiant to host the Wyoming Cowboys (6-3/3-2) in a key Mountain West game that will have implications for both top of the conference standings and post season.
The Rebels, who have already clinched a winning record for the first time since 2013 and is receiving votes in the Coaches Poll, racked up personal awards from their 56-14 thrashing of the Lobos. Quarterback Jayden Maiava earned the MWC Freshman of the Week award with 247 yards on 13-18 passing and a personal best three touchdowns. Wide receiver Ricky White grabbed the MWC Offensive Player of the Week with eight receptions for 165 yards and two touchdowns. White, who has been added to the official Watch List of the Biletnikoff Award, has been on a tear. Over his last four games alone, White has amassed 565 yards and four touchdowns. For the year, White is averaging 98.2 yards per game which is top in the conference and 11th best in the nation.
And as good as those two were, Jacob De Jesus helped set the tone for the game with two punt returns for 112 yards. Nationally, De Jesus is the only player to rank in the top 10 for both kickoff returns and punt returns. He places as second in the nation with 22.1 yards per punt return and is eighth with kick returns at 27.8 yards per attempt.
Wyoming wrapped up bowl eligibility last weekend with a 24-19 win over the visiting Colorado State Rams.In early October with a 24-19 victory, the Cowboys put the only blemish on Fresno State’s conference record and they lost a tight one at conference leader Air Force 34-27.
Ball security and stopping the run will be a focal point for the Rebels. The Rebels have done well with turnover margin, but so have the Cowboys. The Rebels are tied at sixth in the nation at plus-nine, but the Cowboys are just behind at plus-eight and they just forced three turnovers against the Rams. The bigger problem for the Rebels might be running back Harrison Waylee who has four games of greater than 100 yards on the ground. Against CSU, Waylee ran for 128 yards and he has rushed for 2,615 yards over the course of his career. Wyoming isn’t a high powered offense but they do use balance to spread things out, running and passing for around 150 yards per game. Where the Rebels can make life difficult for the Cowboys is getting them into third down situations. The Cowboys only convert at a 36% clip, while the Rebels allow conversions at the same rate.
With the offense clicking, UNLV has the luxury of having strong potential in both phases of the offense as well, but at a more efficient rate than the Cowboys. Though the Rebels have been run dominant for much of the year, the more comfortable Maiava has become behind center, the more the passing game has improved. The trio of Jai’Den Thomas, Vincent Davis, Jr and Donavyn Lester have combined for nearly 150 yards per game on the ground with different player carrying the lion’s share on a game to game basis. Those runners are averaging between 4.6 and 5.8 yards per carry.
Ricky White and Jacob De Jesus have been the most dangerous among the receiving corps, but tight end Kaleo Ballungay has emerged as a big player receiver, converting important third downs. Senika McKie is always a long threat. Summer addition Dominic Gicinto, a senior, broke out with his best game as a Rebel against the Lobos with three catches for 56 yards and a touchdown.
The Rebels have fared well when facing third down situations. A cornerstone of their offense, UNLV has converted 52% of their third downs which is sixth best in the nation. It’s an area in which the Cowboys struggle, allowing over 44% of third down conversions, which is one of the 30 worst in the nation.
There may be some good news on the horizon for the Rebels. Senior defensive back Jerrae Williams, who underwent surgery on a foot injury he suffered Sept. 23 against Texas-El Paso, has been upgraded to questionable for the Wyoming game. The Rebels may still be without playmaker Johnathan Baldwin who suffered a lower leg injury against Fresno.
Prediction: The game figures to be a tight battle from the start, but UNLV should be able to wear the Cowboys down over time. With the well mixing of pass and rush and with so many capable runners, if the Rebels can manage ball security, they should be able to put away the Cowboys in the second half. The longer Wyoming remains within striking distance, the better their chances. Wyoming has won three of four games in which the final score was decided by a touchdown or less, the lone loss coming at Air Force. UNLV is 2-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, the loss coming at Fresno State and the two wins coming on last second field goals by Jose Pizano (Vanderbilt and Colorado State). A large factor may be venue. UNLV is a perfect 4-0 at home while the Cowboys are 0-3 on the road. Final prediction: UNLV 38 Wyoming 21.
DATE: Friday, Nov. 10, 2023
KICKOFF: 7:45 pm PT
SITE: Allegiant Stadium (61,000/Artificial) Las Vegas
TV: FS1 (Alex Faust & Petros Papadakis)
RADIO: ESPN 1100 AM & 100.9 FM (Russ Langer, Caleb Herring & Steve Cofield)
TICKETS: UNLVTickets.com or (702) 739-FANS
SPREAD: UNLV -4 O/U 51.5