UNLV’s season came to and end Thursday night at the Thomas and Mack Center in the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The shorthanded and limping Rebels fought the Aggies fiercely, but in the end, Utah State was the better team with more in the tank.

With the loss, the Rebel season likely comes to an end, barring an unexpected invite to one of the lesser tournaments. And even if that invite was extended, who is to say the Rebels would even want to play?

The play on the court may be over, but the real drama might just be starting.

It’s yet another year that the Rebels will watch Selection Sunday without any hopes of playing on the big stage. UNLV has not made the dance since 2013 when they lost a first round game to Cal in San Jose. That’s 12 straight years without participating in what every college player envisions. It far surpasses UNLV’s six year dry-streak from Tarkanian to Bayno, and then Bayno to Lon Kruger.

So now, though it’s been denied by many outlets, Lon Kruger’s son, Kevin, is on the hotseat. There are arguments for and against parting ways, but stepping back from fandom and into reality, the answer seems pretty clear.

Some methods of assessing basketball success are too subjective to have much merit. The total number of wins is heavily impacted by the strength of non-conference and conference schedule. Though the Rebels didn’t have any this season, games against D2 and even NAIA schools have somehow made it into the official tally, allowing more programs to smokescreen the win total, a number which many fans foolishly use as a benchmark.

Even a post season appearance in a lesser tournament can be too subjective. Take last season, for instance. Several schools had to opt out of the NIT for the Rebels to slide in. UNLV was the eager beneficiary of other school’s disappointment.

The Mountain West Conference did send a record number of schools to the NCAA tournament in 2024, without success, but that the Rebels have participated in the first round of play in all but one year shows that the Rebels just have not performed well in conference - a mediocre conference at that. Kruger has compiled a paltry 40-34 conference record with finishes anywhere between 4th and 7th place. In post season conference play, the Runnin’ Rebels are 2-4 with two first round exits and their only wins coming against the lowly Air Force Falcons.

In Kruger’s four years, the Rebels have had a record of 18-14 (10-8), 19-13 (7-11), 21-13 (12-6) and 18-15 (11-9). His first season as a head coach nearly mirroring what may be his final season as head coach at UNLV.

Based on performance, the decision seems crystal clear. But, like at most schools, the decision runs much deeper than that because of finances.

UNLV dug deep and allocated record resources into the football program with the hiring of Dan Mullen and his staff. UNLV understands that long term viability is based upon a successful football program and rightly designated all it could muster to support the program.

Then there are the petty squabbles with the northern controlled Board of Regents who seem to give UNR whatever they need while hamstringing UNLV. That animosity has existed ever since UNLV split from UNR, in essence, rebelling, hence the school nickname and former mascot, but that’s another story for another day.

The Board of Regents does have some power over UNLV Athletic Director Erick Harper. Harper is due contract talks and the Regents have that control. Harper, who is coming off two splash hires for the football program with Barry Odom and Dan Mullen, was fully supported and trusted by President Keith Whitfield. However, Whitfield unexpectedly resigned two weeks ago citing a family situation. With an interim in place, it’s unknown what position will be taken. Typically interims do not make any big moves, they just bide time until the position is permanently filled.

While the Rebels may not be able to afford parting ways with Kruger because of his contract, it must be asked, can UNLV afford to KEEP him for another season?

The best measurement of overall program health doesn’t lie with team GPA and community service. It doesn’t even necessarily depend on wins and losses. The best barometer has always been the fanbase. Are they engaged? Are they showing up for games? Is the Thomas and Mack a place to be?

UNLV typically announces a crowd of around 5,500. But as anyone with even 20/80 vision can see, it’s usually around 2,000 in attendance. That’s not UNLV inflating numbers, that number would be season tickets sold plus walk up purchases, which are low since there are always freebies floating around. Essentially, that is saying that more than half of the season ticket holders, fans that parted with hard earned cash, aren’t even bothering to show up for games.

If UNLV decides to stick with Kruger, it’s a risky gamble. With a fourth straight uninspiring year, no amount of marketing can satiate what’s left of the bruised fanbase. Perhaps a star studded recruiting class could heighten excitement, but recruiting has been as bland as the play on the court. Beginning a season with even less expectations will leave the frayed fans waiting to pounce on the first setback.

If UNLV decides to move on from Kruger, it should progress quickly, especially considering how swiftly Harper had ink to paper with his two football hires. If the Rebels get the opportunity and accept the invitation to an inconsequential post season tournament, that may signal another year for Kruger as loose ends are typically tied before substantial movement in the hiring process.

Whichever direction the Rebels decide to go, there will be more emotion in the next couple of weeks than any point during the previous seasons.

Anyway, when does football start?