Rebels expect strong bounce back against Lobos
The Rebels need a quick response. Dropping a heartbreaker against Fresno after a second half turnover fest, the Rebels know they let one slip from their grip. An important one.
Little can be done about it now, so the Rebels focus on the next one. In what will be their first and only such trip of the season, UNLV is on the back half of consecutive road games. This time the Rebels get the struggling UNM Lobos (3-5, 1-3).
It’s an important game for both teams. UNLV, who is already bowl eligible, has a lot at stake with newer goals of competing for the top of the conference and a championship game. UNLV is currently in a three way tie for second place with Fresno State and Boise. For the Lobos, a loss would nearly seal their fate as finishing under .500 for the season, a season that might also seal the fate of Lobos head coach Danny Gonzales.
Even coming of a tough loss, the Rebels should be experiencing high confidence. UNLV dominated much of the game versus Fresno State as cursory glance at the box score would show. UNLV played their worst quarter of the season in the third and it was too much for the Rebels to overcome. For the Lobos, confidence should be tenuous at best, coming of a loss to the lowly UNR Wolf Pack. It may be a dangerous game for the Rebels if the Lobos are loose and desperate and trying to save Gonzales’ job, but many times players go through the motions and play out the string of a disappointing season.
The Lobos have made a dramatic turnaround with their offense. Last season, the Lobos averaged a paltry 13.1 points per game in their two win season. This year, the Lobos are averaging over 29 points per game. When the Lobos get into the red-zone, they are among the nation’s leaders converting 92.6% (25-of-27) attempts. The Rebels aren’t far behind, percentage wise, at 91.4% (32-of-35).
For UNLV, it should be more of the same for the offense. While ball security was an issue last game, it hasn’t been an issue most of the season. Maiava and the Rebels are expected to stick with a heavy dose of running with multiple backs in an attempt to wear down the Lobos. Maiava, who has finding more comfort in his starting role, will attempt to mix in throws to Ricky White, Senika McKie, and newer weapon Kaleo Ballungay to spread the defense and capitalize on one on one opportunities. The status of speedster Jacob De Jesus is unknown after leaving the Fresno game with an injury.
But it’s more than De Jesus that is sidelined. Defensively, the Rebels hope to get back junior Johnathan Baldwin, who has been a defensive standout for the Rebels this season. Slot corner Jerrae Williams has missed several games and though he’s ahead of schedule after surgery, he will not see any action during the New Mexico game.
Even without a full complement of defensive starters, UNLV should be ready to handle anything the Lobos throw at them. The Rebel secondary has been a bit feast or famine – vulnerable against long passes in one on one situations, but they’ve also picked off 12 passes, which is tied for 5th nationally. The secondary has also been strong with tackling and limiting yards after catch.
The Lobos use a balanced attack with Dylan Hopkins at quarterback and Jacory Croskey-Merritt as the primary runner. Croskey-Merritt has 12 rushing touchdown and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, coming in at 74 yards per game. Hopkins has tossed for 11 touchdowns but has seven interceptions and only a 58.1% completion rate. Hopkins is averaging just over 200 yards per game passing. If the Rebels can force some quick throws, they may be able to improve upon their 13th in the nation turnover ratio.
The game will be streamed via the Mountain West Network and shown live in Southern Nevada via the Silver State Sports & Entertainment Network (SSSEN), which is available on Cox channel 125 and over the air at 5.2.
PREDICTION: UNLV will come out angry, as they should having gifted a game to the Bulldogs. But given how teams tend to mirror demeanor of their head coach, expect it to be a more controlled anger. UNM’s season is hanging on the flimsiest of threads and a few tough shots could be enough to deflate the Lobos. As the game wears on, UNLV will be able to pick their poison, using the run or the pass, to grab large chunks of field in short order. The defense will get back to forcing some turnovers and keeping the opposition with low gains after touches. Because of the support of the coaching staff and his teammates, Senika McKie will bounce back from a tough outing against Fresno and put up a career day against the Lobos. Final prediction: UNLV 44, UNM 17.
DATE: Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023
KICKOFF: 3:02 pm PT
SITE: University Stadium (37,440/Artificial) Albuquerque, NM
TV: SSSEN (Jeff Siembiada & George Carter)
STREAM: Mountain West Network (Jeff Siembiada & George Carter)
RADIO: ESPN 1100 AM & 100.9 FM & SiriusXM Channel 384
SPREAD: UNLV -10 O/U 61