Rebels and Rams to clash at Allegiant
Homecoming Week is always special, but for UNLV, it has more importance than any in recent memory. The upstart Rebels (5-1, 2-0) will host the Colorado State Rams (3-3, 1-1) on Saturday, 4 p.m. at Allegiant Stadium. This will mark the first time the Rams have played at UNLV since 2016.
The Rebels, winners of four straight games, have a chance to remain in first place in the Mountain West Conference. Fueled by Coach Brennan Marion’s versatile Go Go offense, UNLV has scored at least 40 points in the past four games and has scored at least 40 points in all five victories. The 5-1 start for the Rebels is the first since 1984, so the program is encroaching upon unfamiliar territory.
The Rams are no stranger to putting up a lot of points. CSU is fresh over a comeback win over the Boise State Broncos. The Rams completed a 33 yard Hail Mary to upset the Broncos 31-30 in Fort Collins. The Rams trailed the Broncos 30-10 with 6:12 left in the game before Colorado State started the dramatic comeback. The Rams are putting up 31.0 points per game.
While the Rebels have tilted towards run dominance with their offense, the Rams rely almost exclusively on the air. Using several backs, UNLV has scored 21 touchdowns on the ground while averaging 222 yards per game. The Rams have 16 touchdowns through the air while averaging 353 yards per game with the pass, which is second in the nation only to Washington. UNLV has only four touchdown passes while averaging just under 200 yards per game, though the Rebels have mixed in the pass well enough under Jayden Maiava, as evidenced by a 54.2% third down conversion rate, which is fifth best in the nation.
Where the Rebels have an advantage is turnover margin. While Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has thrown for 14 touchdowns, he does have 11 interceptions. UNLV has only lost one fumble while the Rams have coughed it up four times. Overall, UNLV is tied for fourth in the nation with a plus-nine turnover margin while Colorado State is at minus-one. If the Rebels continue to build upon it, it can end up a very long day for Colorado State.
UNLV has been vulnerable against the long ball and were exposed repeatedly against the UNR Wolf Pack. UNR had a season’s best 27 points while having their best passing performance in their winless season. The Rebels will have to keep a strong eye on senior Tory Horton. Horton, who started his career at UNR, is currently second in the nation in receptions and seventh in the nation in receiving yards – he also has six touchdown receptions. Not to be outdone with touchdown receptions, Dallin Holker, a tight end transfer from BYU, also has six, including the game winner against the Broncos.
Defensively, the Rams are vulnerable in both phases of the game. They give up a whopping 467 total yards per game and the opposition is averaging 35 points per game. Colorado State gives up over 300 yards in the air, so especially given the style of offense UNLV employs; there should be plenty of open space. But don’t expect the Rebels to shy away from the run. UNLV is ranked ninth in the country and they use multiple backs to do the damage, it’s hard to tell who might have a big game.
The Rebels and Maiava have to be careful - Colorado State can bring pressure. Especially with Mohamed Kamara on the edge, he can force Maiava into some quick decisions. Even though he hasn’t been picked off in two weeks, Maiava has thrown a couple of interceptions that could have been more costly than what they were.
Prediction: Though this can be said about many games, this one might come down to turnovers and special teams play. On paper, it should be nothing short of a high scoring affair - an air attack vs an improving defense that has shown vulnerability in the secondary and an offensively effective, varied and balanced attack against a struggling defense. Both teams have had tight wins with a flair for the dramatic; UNLV had theirs earlier in the year against Vanderbilt and CSU just recently downed the Broncos with the Hail Mary. UNLV has struggled historically against the Rams, with CSU having won the last four contests and owning the all-time series 17-6-1. For CSU to pull out the win, UNLV is going to have to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers, something they haven’t done all year. But even one untimely turnover can swing the score.
Final Prediction: UNLV 42, CSU 31.
DATE: Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023
KICKOFF: 4:07 pm PT
SITE: Allegiant Stadium (61,000/Artificial) Las Vegas
TV: SSSEN (Matt Neverett & Steve Cofield)
RADIO: ESPN 1100 AM & 100.9 FM (Russ Langer, Caleb Herring & Tony Cordasco) STREAM: Mountain West Network
TICKETS: Call (702) 739-FANS or visit UNLVTickets.com
SPREAD: UNLV -5 O/U 61.5