MWC Championship: Boise at UNLV

The Rebels couldn’t find a more dissimilar opponent history for a championship game. The same could be said for the Broncos. UNLV will be appearing in their first the Mountain West Championship Game while Boise State will make their seventh appearance.

Head coach Barry Odom, who earned the award as Mountain West Conference Coach of the Year, has the Rebels shattering expectations and program history while establishing stability and consistency. The Broncos have survived the mid-season firing of Coach Andy Avalos and ridden two wins under interim head coach Spencer Danielson to earn a three way tie with the Rebels and San Jose State.

Boise State has been the flagship program of the league with four conference championships and six division titles since 2012. UNLV is typically the team that every conference foe circles as a sure win.

The two programs collide Saturday, Dec. 2 at 12:00 p.m. PST at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas for the Mountain West Conference Championship. The game will air nationally on FOX.

UNLV closed the season with a 37-31 loss against San Jose State. In that game, the Rebels struggled to contain the best quarterback in the league in Chevan Cordeiro. Cordiero lived up to the hype in throwing for 249 yards on 19-24 passing with two touchdowns.

In the championship game, the Rebels get to square off against the MWC Offensive Player of the Year in Ashton Jeanty. In only ten games, Jeanty became the first player in FBS history to rush for 1,000 yards and catch for 500 yards. Only a sophomore, the explosive 5’9”, 210 pound running back is a threat with the run or as a receiver out of the backfield. Jeanty gashed the San Diego State Aztecs and Colorado State Rams for better than 200 yards on the ground and collected better than 100 yards through the air against Air Force and Washington. Overall, he has rushed for 111 yards per game with a 6.1 yard per carry average while receiving 54 yards per game with a 14.5 yard per catch average. Jeanty has scored 18 touchdowns on the season with 13 of them coming on the ground.

Jeanty is joined by senior George Holani, another strong back who can go for big gains. Against Utah State, Holani busted a 75 yard run on his way to a two touchdown, 178 yard game. Holani has five rushing touchdowns on the season.

While Jeanty may be a biggest part of the Boise State offense, the Broncos can win in other ways. Broncos part time starter, Maddux Madsen was injured just as Davalos was dismissed. Danielson was forced to go with Taylen Green, who saw other starts for the Broncos during the season and last season. Green offers a dual threat for the Broncos, though he is not the most proficient passer. In his last outing against Air Force, Green was 13-17 for 228 yards through the air with a touchdown, however, he was picked off twice. He has had big games through the air during his career, but his arm has been not consistent and is usually somewhere closer to average, at best.

For the Rebels, the focal point seems simple, though it is much easier said than done. The Rebels have to find a way to slow down Jeanty and force Green to throw the ball. Whether he has the ball in his hands or not, Jeanty is a threat whenever he is between the lines. Jeanty is elusive with power so he can present a difficult challenge to the Rebel defenders. Point of contact tackling will be paramount as the Broncos gain a lot of yards after catch and contact. Defensive back Johnathan Baldwin returned last week and defensive back Jerrae Williams should be back after a lengthy absence to help fortify the Rebel defense.

While the Rebels seem to have less to diffuse to have success, UNLV presents a different set of obstacles for the Broncos. UNLV’s running game has not been quite as sharp as it was earlier in the season, but that’s in large part due to the opposition focusing on the Rebel run game. The Rebels have countered through the air well, led by Freshman of the Year Jayden Maiva with 17 total touchdowns, 14 by the pass.

Though the Rebels lead the nation in rushing touchdowns with 36, no Rebel runner grabbed more than honorable mention for MWC awards (Vincent Davis, Jr. and Donavyn Lester). But that is the strength of UNLV’s running attack. Aside from Davis and Lester, the Rebels have freshman Jai’Den Thomas, who leads the team in rushing touchdowns with 12. The three have similar numbers in rush attempts and yardage so there is no singular stand out. With the Rebels, it’s difficult to tell who is going to get the most in game action out of the backfield. Further, as Maiava is also a threat when he gets out of the pocket, it is easy to see why opposition’s first priority has been to stop the run.

Maiava’s primary target, junior Ricky White III, may have something to prove in the game. White was the first Rebel since Ryan Wolfe to capture Mountain West First team as a receiver, but had a strong argument as the Mountain West offensive player of the year over Jeanty. White, an All-America candidate, is just 38 yards away from tying Jim Sandusky's school record for receiving yards in a season (1,346 in 1981). He has 75 receptions and seven touchdowns, while averaging 17.3 per catch. White figures to draw double coverage in much of the game, so it will be up to complementary receivers such as tight end Kaleo Ballungay, Senika McKie, Dominic Gicinto, freshman Corey Thompson, Tim Conerly and Jacob De Jesus to find open space.

The Rebels had several more conference award winners who they will depend on if they are to defeat Boise State.

Kicker Jose Pizano captured UNLV’s first ever Mountain West special teams player of the year. Pizano, one of three finalists for the Lou Groza Award, has been nearly automatic in his field goal tries. Pizano has broken many Rebel records including most field goals in a game (6), most field goals in a season (23), most kicking points in a game (19) and season (119). He has connected on 23 of 25 kicks including a UNLV record 19 consecutive kicks. Pizano's contributions have been significant in game winning field goals against Vanderbilt and Colorado State and his cushioning late game kick against Air Force.

Jacob De Jesus may have helped set the tone for a special season with his opening game kickoff for 98 yards against Bryant. De Jesus was tackled just short of the score, but it gave a glimpse into what the speedster could do. De Jesus earned Mountain West First Team both kicker and punt returner and Saturday will give him the opportunity to shine on the biggest stage.

Prediction: Boise has a stout front line that can open sizable lanes for Jeanty and Holani and if the Rebels can slow the Boise State runners and force Green to throw more often, the Rebels should win the game. Expect the Rebels to stack the box and handle receivers one on one as the primary defensive plan. Even with that scheme, Boise’s runners are still good enough to have a big day. Point of contact tackling will be paramount as Jeanty and Holani can battle for those extra yards. Point of contact tackling is also critical when defending the pass. Boise will utilize shorter routes, screens and quick flares to get the ball in the hands of their biggest playmakers in open space. The Broncos can pile up yards after catch so it is going to take a good first hit and subsequent gang tackling. UNLV should be at the healthiest that they have been all year with the probable return of standout Jerrae Williams.

Boise will look to do similar. If the Rebels run game is clicking, a lot of teams are going to be in trouble because UNLV has demonstrated the ability to sustain long drives with the run as well as the ability to bust huge gains. The Broncos early objective is going to make sure the running game never gets off the ground, so Maiava’s reads and accuracy – areas in which he has struggled, at times - are of primary importance. UNLV may be able to use play action pass more frequently, both in an effort to catch the Broncos off guard and to open up the running game. Maiava needs to make the right play at the right time and sometimes that will be safer underneath passes to any receiver not named Ricky White. If the Rebels can get a balanced attack, the offense will put up enough points to win the game.

The Broncos may have a little extra motivation in this game. Players and fans have rallied around Danielson, though he is not expected to get the permanent job. A “win one for the gipper” motivation can be quite effective. Visible emotion will be evident for the Broncos while the Rebels will be more even keel, which has been their approach all season anyway.

In the end, Green will not be able to effectively handle the extra responsibility of having to win with his. Jeanty and the Boise offense will still get respectable rushing yards, but the Rebels will have enough series where they keep it in check and force punts. UNLV will open up the running game with safer, open passes underneath to sustain early drives.

UNLV scoring first could be a key factor in that the Rebels are 8-0 when they score first, 1-3 when they fall behind early. Boise State isn’t the strongest road team with a 2-4 record. One of those wins was against last place San Diego State and two of their road losses came against Colorado State and Fresno State.

Final prediction: UNLV 38 Boise State 28

Bowl Prediction: Arizona Bowl vs Toledo

Notes: Other UNLV Mountain West award winners – OT Tiger Shanks, first team All Mountain West, LB Jackson Woodard, first team All Mountain West, DL Jalen Dixon first team All Mountain West, DB Cameron Oliver first team All Mountain West. Honorable mention: RB Vincent Davis Jr., RB Donavyn Lester, LB Marsel McDuffie, P Marshall Nichols, S Jaxen Turner.

More Notes: … UNLV has shattered program records for 40+point games for both consecutive games (four) and in a season (six) while scoring at least 24 points in 10 straight games for the first time ever … Boise State owns an 8-3 lead in the overall series ... All of UNLV's victories in the series came in Las Vegas ... The Broncos are making their second consecutive appearance in the league championship game. Including 2023, Boise State will have appeared in six of the last seven Mountain West title games …

DATE: Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023
KICKOFF: 12:09 pm PT
SITE: Allegiant Stadium (61,000/Artificial) Las Vegas
TV: FOX (Jason Benetti, Brock Huard & Allison Williams)
RADIO: ESPN 1100 AM & 100.9 FM (R. Langer, C.Herring & S. Cofield)
TICKETS: UNLVTickets.com
SPREAD: Boise State -4 O/U 58.5