Heading to El Paso

UNLV wraps up their non-conference slate with Saturday night game in El Paso against the Miners. In the middle of the softest part of the schedule, UNLV has a golden opportunity to position themselves for a successful season. The Rebels will have winnable games in the coming weeks against Hawaii (1-3) and at UNR (0-3). But first up is the UTEP Miners.

The Miners' (1-3) sole win was a 28-14 home victory in the second game of the season over Incarnate Word. On the road, UTEP has fallen at Jacksonville State (17-14), at Northwestern (38-7) and at Arizona (31-10).

The Rebels may be back with junior Doug Brumfield starting at quarterback. Brumfield suffered an injury in the first quarter against Vanderbilt and was relieved by MWC Freshman of the Week Jaden Maiava, who led the Rebels to a dramatic last second victory.

Under Brumfield, the offense hasn't seen much consistency. Brumfield has yet to throw a touchdown pass and has been picked off twice. In two full games against Michigan and Bryant, he has only accumulated 186 yards through the air, though he has been under heavy pressure, sacked six times between the two games. The Rebels are waiting for the break out game for the junior. With Maiava showing poise and promise against Vanderbilt, Coach Barry Odom may choose to call upon the freshman for the start, or he may be waiting in the wings in case the offense falters under Brumfield.

Offensively, the Miners have a balanced attack, but it hasn't been very potent in averaging just 14.8 points per game. Without the win against Incarnate Word, the Miners are scoring at near 10 points per game.

Junior Deion Hankins and sophomore Torrance Burgess lead the ground attack at 5.3 and 5.4 yards per carry, respectively. However, both of those totals were inflated with the two combining for 259 yards against lowly Incarnate Word. Senior quarterback Gavin Hardison has averaged 180 yards through the air on better than 60% passing. He has four touchdown tosses to go with his four interceptions.

If the Rebels can force the Miners into third and long situations, it could be a long day for the home team. UTEP ranks 96th in the country in converting third downs at a 36% clip, but lower than 30% against their top three opponents.

UNLV should find success on the flip side. The Scarlet and Gray is near 50% in converting third downs, which is 28th best in the country, while only a handful of teams are worse than the Miners at giving up 3rd down conversions at 45%.

UNLV still hasn't seen strong play from either the offensive line or the defensive line. A saving grace on the defensive side is that the Rebels have tackled well, especially in open space. With a lack of pressure from the line, UNLV has utilized blitzes with some success. UTEP is prone to the sack, ranking near 100th in the country and their ranking is even worse with interception rate.

The Rebels hope that Ricky White builds upon his last outing. After a slow start to the season, White hit his form of last season with a career best 12 receptions for 165 yards, including a 48 yarder from Maiava to set up the game winning field against Vanderbilt.

Prediction: Regardless of who sees most of the time behind center, this is a game that the Rebels should win. The only intangible working against the Rebels is that it's a road game. Not that the Rebels are anywhere near perfect, but UTEP isn't a strong team in any phase of the game. Turnovers and a general lack of focus can change the complexion of any game, but if the Rebels approach this game as a must win, the Rebels shouldn't need a herculean effort to secure the win. Then again, UTEP has to view this game as winnable during a season that is going south and fast. If the Rebels do drop this game and go on to fall short of bowl eligibility, it will be the game they circle as a huge missed opportunity. Final prediction: UNLV 34 UTEP 17.

DATE: Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023
KICKOFF: 6:00 pm PT
SITE: Sun Bowl Stadium (45,971/Artificial) El Paso
STREAM: ESPN+ (Duke Keith & Jacob Boggs)
RADIO: ESPN 1100 AM & 100.9 FM (Russ Langer, Caleb Herring & Steve Cofield)
ONLINE: Live Stats at www.unlvrebels.com
SPREAD: UNLV -3 O/U 50.5