UNLV hosts San Jose State, the hottest team in conference, Saturday afternoon at Allegiant with a chance to wrap up home field in the MWC championship game.
In a season of sustained success, the next game becomes bigger than the one prior. The Rebels, winners of three straight games, take on red hot San Jose State (6-5, 5-2), winners of five straight games. A win would finalize UNLV as sole possessors at the top of the Mountain West Conference standings. A win would also ensure UNLV hosts the MWC Conference championship game at Allegiant with the opponent to be determined by Friday afternoon’s Air Force (8-3, 5-2) at Boise State (6-5, 5-2) game.
While a loss muddies the waters, UNLV would still be the favorite to host the conference championship game while sharing the top spot in the league standings with the Air Force/Boise State winner and San Jose State.
But UNLV can erase all doubt by managing to remain undefeated at home, something which has not occurred since John Robinson's 2000 squad went 6-0 at Sam Boyd Stadium.
San Jose State has not dropped a game since October 7th, a close 35-27 battle in which they fell short at Boise State. The Spartans looked to be a non-contender early in the season as they struggled against tough competition. The Spartans were crushed in games at then #6 USC and against #18 Oregon State. As they limped into conference play with a 1-3 record, things snowballed to start conference play. Dropping the first two against Air Force and Boise and sitting at 0-2 in conference and 1-5 overall, the Spartans became a league afterthought.
The high powered Spartan offense ripped through the next five games with ease, led by star quarterback Chevan Cordeiro and top runners Kairee Robinson and Quali Conley. In those five wins, San Jose has averaged 39 points per game while Robinson and Conley have averaged 123 and 104 yards per game, respectively. Cordiero has averaged 270 through the air while throwing for 11 touchdowns to only one interception over that stretch of games.
Not by way of style and tempo, rather by way of effectiveness, the San Jose offense is similar to UNLV’s offensive attack. They can score quickly and often and do it in a variety of ways. Both teams are eerily similar with both passing yards and rushing yards. UNLV leads the country in touchdowns by rush at 33, but led by Robinson’s 16, SJSU isn’t far behind with 28 total on the ground. Both squads possess multiple impact ball carriers. Cordiero has 17 touchdown passes to four interceptions compared to Maiava’s 13 touchdown passes to six interceptions.
Much like the Rebels, San Jose spreads the ball through the air, though they do focus on a primary receiver. Nick Nash has hauled in 44 passes for eight touchdowns and a 13.8 yards per catch average. UNLV’s Ricky White is in the middle of a record breaking year having hauled in 70 passes for seven touchdowns with a 17.0 yard average. As an All-America and Biletnikoff Award candidate, White has four straight games with better than 100 yards receiving.
Both teams have shown to be ball hawks in the secondary. UNLV has snatched 13 interceptions, led by Jaxen Turner’s four and the Spartans have picked off 12 passes, led by Jay'Vion Cole’s three. The two teams are also among the best in the country with fumble recoveries as the Rebels have recovered nine and the Spartans eight. The Rebels have fared well all season long with turnover margin, but they’ll finally meet a team that is even more opportunistic. The Rebels are tied for 11th best with a plus-nine turnover margin while the Spartans are tied for third with a plus-12 turnover margin.
On paper, it appears the two teams are about as evenly matched as they could be. Where UNLV has an advantage may be with special teams.
Groza Award nominee Jose Pizano has drained 22 of 23 field goals this season, including 18 straight, which sets a UNLV record. Pizano has converted on three critical kicks this season – game winners against Vanderbilt and Colorado State and a timely one at Air Force last week to give a late and necessary cushion against the Falcons.
Often overlooked, punter Marshall Nichols has shined for the Rebels this season. The sophomore ranks 12th nationally in average yardage, but his pinpoint placement was critical in last week’s pivotal win against Air Force. In that game, he also converted a key fake on fourth down to extend a drive that helped seal the game.
A potent speedster in the offense, Jacob De Jesus is a threat with every kick return. De Jesus has averaged 16.8 yards per punt return, which is third in the nation, and 26.6 per kick return, which is good for eighth in the nation. Though he has yet to score on special teams, he has a long kick return of 96 yards and a punt return of 59 yards.
Prediction: The Rebel defense will be tested in a way they haven’t been tested this year. With San Jose’s ability to mix in the pass with the run and having a dynamic quarterback that can gain yards with his legs, the defense has to be especially focused. The Rebels have made tremendous halftime adjustments, allowing only seven points total in the second half of the last three games.
If Cordeiro has too much time to throw, he can pick apart the UNLV defense with surgical precision. As a seasoned veteran, he is too good with his ball placement and decision making. Well disguised and well timed blitzes and tight coverage by the secondary will be key. The linebacking corps, which have been strong all season long, will have to have a productive day for the Rebels to slow down the explosive Spartan offense.
For the Rebels, in recent games, the opposition has focused primarily on stopping the run and forcing Maiava and company to beat them through the air. And Maiava has stepped up in a way that most freshman jdo not. Though he has put up spectacular numbers, he has been prone to occasional poor decisions and wild throws even when he does have time in the pocket. While the Rebels have done the job primarily through the air lately, they are at their offensive best when they can establish both phases of the game.
The game has all the makings of a high scoring, tight affair. A two score lead or deficit may not mean much to either team. Both teams, however, would rather play keep away than catch up. The Rebels are 8-0 when they score first this season, so UNLV may hope to get the opening possession and produce.
Both teams do very well with takeaways. Cordiero has much more experience than Maiava, especially in big games, so the freshman needs to play within himself and not try to force too much. The turnover battle will have a large impact on the game.
Special teams figures to play a key role as well and it is an area in which the Rebels have thrived. Spartan kicker Kyler Halvorsen has struggled from beyond 30 yards, connecting on only 5 of 8 with a long of 41 yards. This is where the difference will be, three made field goals to one. Final prediction: UNLV 37, SJSU 31
Notes: UNLV’s LB Marsel McDuffie was MWC Defensive Player of the Week, the first for the Rebels this season on the defensive side. Jayden Maiava earned the MWC Freshman of the Week for the sixth time this season, which gives the Rebels a program-record 11 MWC weekly honors in 2023 … The Rebels have scored at least 24 points in the ninth straight game for the first time since moving to Division I in 1978 … SJSU leads the all-time series 19-7-1 and has won three straight vs. the Rebels … The Rebels are fifth nationally in third-down conversion rate at 51.5% and their 87 third-down conversions overall are seven more than any other team …
DATE: Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023
KICKOFF: 12:05 pm PT
SITE: Allegiant Stadium (61,000/Artificial) Las Vegas
TV: SSSEN (Matt Neverett & Steve Cofield)
RADIO: ESPN 1100 AM & 100.9 FM (Langer, Herring & Cordasco)
STREAM: Mountain West Network
SPREAD: UNLV -2.5 O/U 58.5
