Key clash between Rebels and Bulldogs
The UNLV Rebels (6-1, 3-0), winners of five straight for the first time since 1984, will take on the Fresno State Bulldogs (6-1, 2-1) in what figures to be their toughest conference game to date. The Bulldogs lone loss on the season was a tight 24-19 loss in Laramie against the Wyoming Cowboys (5-2, 2-1). Earlier in the season, the Bulldogs won at Purdue and Arizona State, bigger names but not high quality teams. Before their bye week, Fresno outlasted Utah State 37-32 in Logan, Utah.
The Rebels remained perfect in conference play as MW Special Teams Player of the Week Jose Pizano nailed his second game winner of the season against Colorado State. His 28-yard field goal as time expired gave the Rebels a narrow 25-23 victory.
Against the Rams, the Rebel running game wasn’t as sharp as it had been previously with Colorado State doing everything to stop the run. Freshman of the Week Jayden Maiava found his form in the second half, throwing for a career best 353 yards on 27-36 passing with no interceptions. Maiava calmly and methodically led the Rebels downfield with 40 seconds remaining in the game, completing 4 of 4 passes to set up Pizano’s heroics.
Saturday night’s game is Homecoming for the Bulldogs in more ways than one. This will be Fresno State’s first home game since September 30th against UNR.
With both teams already eligible for bowls, positioning in conference standings moves to the forefront. After Saturday’s matchup, UNLV’s toughest remaining games will be vs Wyoming and at conference leader and ranked Air Force while the Bulldogs most difficult games will be vs Boise and at San Jose.
Fresno State dominates the all-time series, leading 18-7, with six straight wins over the Rebels. With the Bulldogs as heavy favorites, as they will once again be on Saturday, UNLV has battled Fresno State tightly, losing 37-30 last season in Las Vegas and 38-30 two years ago in Fresno.
Like UNLV’s previous opponent, Colorado State, Fresno is an air based offense. But who starts remains in question. Redshirt sophomore Mikey Keene missed last week’s game against Utah State with an ankle injury. Keene has thrown over 200 yards in each game, with a pair of 300+ yard games at Purdue and vs Kent State. He has been accurate in completing an impressive 68.5% of his passes while tossing 15 touchdowns to go with only four interceptions. Keene focuses on three primary targets – seniors Jaelen Gill and Erik Brooks and redshirt freshman Jalen Moss. The trio has combined for 109 receptions and 13 touchdowns. As a group, they are averaging more than 12 yards per reception.
The Bulldogs use two backs to handle the ground yards. Junior Elijah Gilliam from Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas is averaging 4.0 yards per carry and has scored four touchdowns. He is joined by junior Malik Sherrod who has scored five touchdowns while averaging 6.1 yards per carry. But as a whole, the Bulldogs are rushing for just over 100 yards per game while throwing for over 300 yards per game.
The Rebels have established their offense on a bruising running game over the course of the season. However, against Colorado State, it did not come easy as the Rams loaded the box and slowed down the ground attack. The Rebels, who averaged 222 ground yards per game, were held to only 138 against the Rams. But in the second half, Jayden Maiava took advantage of tight defense and threw for a career high 353 yards. Ricky White and Jacob De Jesus each had nine receptions, both with a catch over 20 yards on the deciding game winning drive.
Prediction: The matchup is different, the venue is different and the stakes are much higher – but this game lines up similarly to UNLV’s game against Colorado State. Fresno State is coming off a bye week and can heal some of the bumps and bruises, which will be needed as starting quarterback Mikey Keene (ankle) is still undecided at this point. Fresno head coach Jeff Tedford has been noncommittal about Keene starting, but he has been practicing. Backup Logan Fife had a strong game against Utah State (291 yards and a touchdown on 22-39 passing), but who starts for the Bulldogs may determine the outcome.
UNLV is at their best when they dictate the pace on the ground and use the passing game to keep the opposition honest, not the other way around. If the Rebels can establish the run attack early, UNLV should be able to steal one in Fresno.
Fresno will try to pick apart the UNLV defense through the air. Though the Rams did skew from their typical script against the Rebels by running the ball more, UNLV did a good job when the Rams did decide to pass, especially in minimizing the damage Tory Horton can create.
With Keene starting, the prediction is Fresno State 31, UNLV 27. With Fife starting, the prediction is UNLV 35, Fresno State 28.
DATE: Saturday, Oct. 28, 2023
KICKOFF: 7:40 pm PT
SITE: Valley Children's Stadium (40,727/Artificial) Fresno, CA
TV: FS1 (Alex Faust & Petros Papadakis)
RADIO: ESPN 1100 AM & 100.9 FM (Russ Langer, Caleb Herring & Steve Cofield)
STREAM: FS1
SPREAD: Fresno State -9.0 O/U: 59